Quick Answer: Homeowners are projected to spend about $519 billion on remodeling and repairs through mid-2027, but growth is slowing to around 0.5% a year. Since the total isn't really growing, the way to grow is to win a bigger share of it, mostly by answering leads faster and booking more of the ones you already get.
Your phones were busier this time last year. Is that the market or your marketing? From inside the business, it's hard to tell.
The numbers help. Homeowners are still spending a lot on their homes, but the total has stopped climbing, which changes what it takes to keep your schedule full.
About $519 billion a year. That's what Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies projects as the annual pace of homeowner spending on improvements and repairs through mid-2027, according to its July 2026 Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA).
That number is barely growing. Harvard expects year-over-year growth to drop to just 0.5% by the second quarter of 2027, marking three consecutive quarters of slower growth. Remodeling permits have flattened out, and so have retail sales of building products. When those stall, fewer projects tend to start a few months later.
Yes, for now. Home improvement spending in August 2026 was 7.4% lower than a year earlier. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said the latest numbers are "consistent with a 2026 soft patch for remodeling." Spending had been rising since 2023, though, so it's dropping from a high point.
A lot of this comes back to home sales. People who just bought a house usually want to fix it up, and right now not many people are buying. Existing-home sales fell to an annual pace of 3.98 million in August, the first time they've dipped below 4 million since June 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Harvard's researchers think remodeling will remain at this slower pace until sales come back.
You win more of the jobs that are already out there. Spending is down 7.4% from last year, so there are fewer jobs to go around, and the homeowner calling you is probably calling a couple of other companies too. The job tends to go to whoever handles that first call best.
Here's where to start:
Cut what's wasted, but don't go dark. Homeowners are still spending around $519 billion a year. If you disappear while the market's soft, the jobs you'd have gotten go to whoever kept showing up.
Finding the waste means tracking the cost per booked job for each channel. Cost per lead can look great on a channel that hardly ever books. To get the real number, you need:
With that in place, Google and Meta start optimizing for booked appointments, and you'll know which paid ads are worth what you're spending.
Most likely once home sales recover. Harvard's July forecast shows growth slowing through mid-2027, and its next update is due October 22, 2026. Keep an eye on that and on the monthly home sales reports for the first sign of a turn.
Try faster response and better follow-up first, because they win jobs without eating your margin. If you keep losing bids on one kind of job, look at pricing for that job, and leave the rest of your prices alone.
No. Work homeowners can't put off, like a leaking roof or a broken pool pump, usually holds up better than optional upgrades. So keep your repair and replacement offers up front in your ads right now.
Rizen's paid ads team reports booked appointments and cost per booked job by channel for every home service campaign it runs. When the market isn't growing, that report tells you where your budget is winning work from competitors.
Book a SmartLeadGen strategy call to see where your budget is booking jobs and where it isn't.